Why is Napa County doing so much better than Yolo County on the coronavirus "war"?
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6.15% vs 3.7%....... what do these numbers mean?

Dear Folks,

That's the "Test positivity" rate of Yolo County @ 6.15%  (as of a few minutes ago) vs the 10 counties of the Bay Area that are at 3.7%.  

It helps explain a few things..... on the news in the Bay Area is a new warning from the collective Bay Area Public Health Departments.... they are saying "If you are going to travel outside of the Bay Area for the holidays please check the % positivity rate of your destination before you go and decide accordingly".

And they add that if you go to a high positivity area, please self-quarantine for 14 days after you come back.

Now, to be sure there is some variability in this very very important public health indicator from one county to another in the Bay Area.  In fact, Santa Clara County has only a 1.8% CV test positivity rate.  

Why is Santa Clara County doing so much better than Yolo County?

  1. They are making a MASSIVE CV testing effort.  Therefore they have great information about where the CV is or is not outbreaking and can do           public health interventions.
  2. That means that they can do better CONTACT TRACING.... or tracking down people who have been exposed and getting them to quarantine.
  3. They are enforcing the public health orders by notifying and issuing fines to repeat violators of CV risk reduction mandates.  ***
  4. They have mandated that health services providers cooperate in testing and treatment of Coronavirus, thus EARNING their non-profit status. 

Are there things we can learn from Santa Clara and other high performing counties?  Of course.  Unless we want to be satisfied with being among the low performers in a pandemic situation with a disease that causes illness, disability, and death.

In public health we take on complex problems, often with complex solutions.  If we don't take ALL of the measures to combat a disease we do not succeed.  

Time to update Yolo County's Coronavirus Plan?



*** Since August they have had about 1800 complaints which has resulted in over $600,000 in fines for CV violators.




Would like to see a reference for the fines for "CV risk reduction mandates."

John Troidl

Dear Folks,

One of our Yolo County public health officials has let me know that ONE of the reasons that Napa County has better CV numbers than Yolo County is because they get an adjustment factor for their case rate (cases of CV) that helps keep them in the more open Orange Tier:

"When I look at Napa’s data, I see an unadjusted case rate of 3.1 last week, which falls into the orange tier. However, digging more deeply, I see an unadjusted case rate is 5.9, which lands in the red tier. Their case rate is being heavily discounted (factor of 0.523) by the fact that their testing volume is so high—467.6 tests per 100k residents per day, compared to the state median of 239.2. If it weren’t for their super-high testing volume, they would be in the red tier with Yolo.".

Turns out she is quite correct (she's very smart) and I appreciate her taking the time to point out these specifics (and idiosyncrasies) of data analysis to me as pertains to Covid.

But that brings up another serious question ..... so, if the California State tier system rewards those counties that do a lot (more than average) number of coronavirus tests by keeping them at a less restrictive tier, then why on earth isn't Yolo County doing more tests and urging all of its providers (Sutter, Mercy/Dignity, UCD, Kaiser, Communicare, Elica, Winters, etc etc) to REALLY CRANK IT UP ON TESTING?!?!

I just don't get it.....


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